Serie A Over/Under by Club: Which Teams Play the Most Unders?
Five seasons of Serie A results show which clubs drag games under 2.5 goals, and whether the bookmaker's price has kept up with them.
Brandon HoldenCorrect Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals specialistReviewed by Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
Serie A has a reputation as a low-scoring league, but across 1,900 matches from 2021/22โ2025/26 only 51.1% stayed under 2.5 goals. That is close to a coin flip. The useful question for a bettor is which clubs pull their matches below that line, and whether the price already accounts for it.
The headline answer is Lecce, at 63.8%, with Juventus and Torino close behind. At the other end Sassuolo managed only 38.2%. The more interesting part is the pricing: all eight of the biggest under clubs went under more often than the margin-free price implied. This study sits alongside my total goals predictions page and explains why I lean the way I do on these clubs.
Section ALecce, Juventus and Torino lead the Serie A under 2.5 table
The top half of the ranking covers every club with 57+ Serie A matches in the window. Lecce lead at 63.8% of 152 matches, with an average of 2.16 goals and a fair under price of 1.57. Juventus follow at 61.6% and Torino at 60.5%, each over 190 matches, so those two rates rest on the most data available.
| Club | Matches | Under 2.5 | 95% range | Avg goals | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 152 | 63.8% | 56.2โ71.4% | 2.16 | 1.57 |
| Juventus | 190 | 61.6% | 54.7โ68.5% | 2.40 | 1.62 |
| Torino | 190 | 60.5% | 53.5โ67.5% | 2.28 | 1.65 |
| Parma | 76 | 57.9% | 46.8โ69.0% | 2.32 | 1.73 |
| Empoli | 152 | 57.2% | 49.3โ65.1% | 2.51 | 1.75 |
| Genoa | 152 | 55.9% | 48.0โ63.8% | 2.34 | 1.79 |
| Como | 76 | 55.3% | 44.1โ66.5% | 2.57 | 1.81 |
| Monza | 114 | 55.3% | 46.2โ64.4% | 2.52 | 1.81 |
| Roma | 190 | 54.2% | 47.1โ61.3% | 2.54 | 1.84 |
| Venezia | 76 | 53.9% | 42.7โ65.1% | 2.51 | 1.85 |
| Cremonese | 76 | 53.9% | 42.7โ65.1% | 2.55 | 1.85 |
| Udinese | 190 | 52.6% | 45.5โ59.7% | 2.60 | 1.90 |
| Bologna | 190 | 51.6% | 44.5โ58.7% | 2.56 | 1.94 |
Read the 95% range column before the headline rate. Parma and Como each have only 76 matches, and their ranges are wide enough that I treat them as possible under sides rather than confirmed ones. Lecce's range of 56.2โ71.4% stays clear of the league's 51.1% even at its lower end, and that is why I take it seriously.
Section BSassuolo, Salernitana and Inter sit at the over end of Serie A
The bottom half shows the clubs whose games tend to open up. Sassuolo are last at 38.2%, with matches averaging 2.97 goals, against Lecce's 2.16. Inter, at 43.2%, have the highest goals average on either table at 3.04, which tells you a dominant attack can push a game over as quickly as a leaky defence can.
Lazio sit exactly on 50.0%, which is a fair reminder that plenty of clubs offer no total-goals edge either way. I only want a club profile when the rate is clearly away from the middle.
| Club | Matches | Under 2.5 | 95% range | Avg goals | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 190 | 50.0% | 42.9โ57.1% | 2.65 | 2.00 |
| Hellas Verona | 190 | 49.5% | 42.4โ56.6% | 2.57 | 2.02 |
| Napoli | 190 | 48.9% | 41.8โ56.0% | 2.59 | 2.04 |
| Sampdoria | 76 | 48.7% | 37.5โ59.9% | 2.68 | 2.05 |
| Cagliari | 152 | 47.4% | 39.5โ55.3% | 2.64 | 2.11 |
| Fiorentina | 190 | 46.8% | 39.7โ53.9% | 2.66 | 2.13 |
| Atalanta | 190 | 46.3% | 39.2โ53.4% | 2.86 | 2.16 |
| Spezia | 76 | 46.1% | 34.9โ57.3% | 2.70 | 2.17 |
| AC Milan | 190 | 45.8% | 38.7โ52.9% | 2.76 | 2.18 |
| Inter | 190 | 43.2% | 36.2โ50.2% | 3.04 | 2.32 |
| Salernitana | 114 | 40.4% | 31.4โ49.4% | 2.93 | 2.48 |
| Sassuolo | 152 | 38.2% | 30.5โ45.9% | 2.97 | 2.62 |
Sassuolo's fair under price of 2.62 means a bettor would need odds of that size just to break even backing the under in their games. For me the over is the only side of a Sassuolo match worth studying.
Section CLecce and Juventus unders beat the no-vig price
This chart sets the major-bookmaker under 2.5 probability, with the margin removed, against what actually happened. Lecce were priced at 55.0% and went under 63.8% of the time. Juventus show the widest gap: priced at 51.6%, actual 61.6%. Torino, over 189 priced matches, were priced at 55.0% against an actual 60.8%.
At real major-bookmaker prices, backing the under returned +11.9% per stake in Lecce matches and +15.2% in Juventus matches. Those are historical results, not a model of what comes next.
View the data: under 2.5: priced vs actual, eight biggest unders
| Priced (margin removed) | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce (152 matches) | 55.0% | 63.8% | ยฑ7.6 |
| Juventus (190 matches) | 51.6% | 61.6% | ยฑ6.9 |
| Torino (189 matches) | 55.0% | 60.8% | ยฑ7 |
| Parma (76 matches) | 50.6% | 57.9% | ยฑ11.1 |
| Empoli (152 matches) | 48.7% | 57.2% | ยฑ7.9 |
| Genoa (152 matches) | 54.9% | 55.9% | ยฑ7.9 |
| Como (76 matches) | 51.9% | 55.3% | ยฑ11.2 |
| Monza (114 matches) | 50.9% | 55.3% | ยฑ9.1 |
Genoa are the exception worth spotting: priced at 54.9%, actual 55.9%, so the market had them about right. The main caveat sits here too. Club rates over five seasons carry roughly ยฑ7 points of uncertainty, and a coaching change can flip a profile within a few weeks.
Section DLecce and Torino produce the most 0 or 1 goal Serie A games
This is the chart I use most for Correct Score. The Serie A average for matches with 0 or 1 goals is 25.6%. Lecce reach 34.2% and Torino 33.7%, which puts 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 firmly in play in their games. Juventus are lower at 29.5%, so their unders more often land on two goals, which points me towards 1-1 and 2-0.
View the data: matches with 0 or 1 goals: the under clubs
| Share of club matches ending with at most one goal, 2021/22โ2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| Lecce | 34.2% |
| Juventus | 29.5% |
| Torino | 33.7% |
| Parma | 35.5% |
| Empoli | 28.3% |
| Genoa | 31.6% |
| Como | 22.4% |
| Monza | 24.6% |
| Serie A average | 25.6% |
Como and Monza sit below the league average here despite strong under rates. Their games stay low, but they cluster around two goals rather than one, and that shapes which scorelines I'd shortlist for them.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Start with Lecce and Torino. Lecce (63.8%) and Torino (60.5%) combine high under rates with plenty of 0 or 1 goal games, so they are my first stop for both the under and low correct scores.
- Respect the Juventus price gap. Juventus were priced at 51.6% for the under but went under 61.6% of the time, the widest gap among the eight biggest under clubs. Check whether the price still undersells that before backing it.
- Avoid Sassuolo unders. Sassuolo stayed under in only 38.2% of 152 matches, with a fair under price of 2.62. Club samples are small and a new coach can change everything, so recheck each profile every season.
Frequently asked
Which Serie A team has the most under 2.5 goals matches?
Lecce, with 63.8% of their 152 Serie A matches from 2021/22โ2025/26 finishing under 2.5 goals. Juventus (61.6%) and Torino (60.5%) are next.
What percentage of Serie A matches go under 2.5 goals?
Across 1,900 matches in the last five complete seasons, 51.1% stayed under 2.5 goals. That is much closer to an even split than the league's defensive reputation suggests.
Is the under 2.5 price fair for Juventus games?
Historically, no. The margin-free price implied 51.6% while the actual rate was 61.6%, and backing the under returned +15.2% per stake at major-bookmaker prices over 190 matches. Past returns are no promise for future seasons.
I'm Brandon Holden, and I focus on Correct Score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals markets, where disciplined match analysis matters more than loud opinions.
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