Serie A Clubs vs the Odds: Best and Worst Teams to Back
I backed every Serie A club to win in every league match across five seasons. A handful paid, most didn't, and the season-by-season record is anything but steady.
Every Serie A season ends with someone insisting a club "always pays". I wanted to test that properly. What happened if you backed each club to win in every league match from 2021/22–2025/26 at a flat stake, and did those results hold from one season to the next? The sample covers 1,899 matches with 1X2 odds and 25 clubs with 57+ matches.
The headline is blunt. Backing everyone in every match returned −10.8% at the major-bookmaker price, and only 8 of 25 clubs finished in profit. Lazio top the table at +9.0% and Sampdoria prop it up at −51.0%. This is the background I read Serie A prices against on my football 1X2 tips page, and the biggest lesson is how fragile these club records are.
Section ALazio, AC Milan and Bologna lead Serie A's backing table
This chart shows the top eight and bottom eight clubs by flat-stake ROI, with the major-bookmaker price and the best available price side by side. Lazio lead at +9.0%, rising to +13.1% at the best price over 190 matches. AC Milan follow at +5.9% (+9.6% best), with Bologna at +4.8% (+9.5% best). All three played the full 190 matches, so these aren't flukes built on a handful of games.
At the other end, Sampdoria returned −51.0% over 76 matches and Venezia −43.8% over 76. The pattern at the bottom is obvious once you look at it: these are mostly clubs fighting relegation, where backing them every week meant paying for hope.
Top 8 and bottom 8 of 25 qualifying clubs; middle 9 omitted.
View the data: serie a: roi backing each club to win
| Major-bookmaker price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | +9.0% | +13.1% |
| AC Milan | +5.9% | +9.6% |
| Bologna | +4.8% | +9.5% |
| Inter | +4.3% | +7.1% |
| Sassuolo | +4.2% | +10.2% |
| Napoli | +3.9% | +6.8% |
| Empoli | +1.0% | +9.3% |
| Fiorentina | +1.0% | +5.6% |
| Monza | −17.8% | −13.2% |
| Hellas Verona | −26.3% | −22.5% |
| Lecce | −27.9% | −24.4% |
| Genoa | −30.7% | −27.8% |
| Cremonese | −32.4% | −29.8% |
| Salernitana | −35.0% | −30.0% |
| Venezia | −43.8% | −39.6% |
| Sampdoria | −51.0% | −49.2% |
| All Serie A clubs | −10.8% | −6.8% |
The gap between the two bars matters more than it seems. Across the whole league, shopping for the best price moves the blanket return from −10.8% to −6.8%, and the number of profitable clubs from 8 to 10. Price alone doesn't create an edge, but taking the worse price makes a thin edge disappear.
Section BInter and Napoli won more often than priced; Sampdoria fewer
ROI is the result, so this table looks at the cause. It compares how often each club actually won with the margin-free implied probability from the odds. Inter won 67.4% of matches against an implied 61.7%, a gap of +5.7 points. Napoli, Lazio, Roma and AC Milan all sat above their prices too. At the bottom, Sampdoria won 17.1% against an implied 25.7%, and Venezia 14.5% against 22.2%.
Here's the caveat that matters most. Inter's gap comes with a 95% range of ±6.7 points, which is wider than the gap itself. None of the 25 clubs had an ROI range entirely above zero, and the typical ROI range was ±23.4 points. Most of the differences between clubs sit within chance. Past returns are a record, not a system.
| Club | Matches | Won | Priced | Gap | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 190 | 67.4% | 61.7% | +5.7 | ±6.7 |
| Napoli | 190 | 58.9% | 54.2% | +4.7 | ±7.0 |
| Lazio | 190 | 47.4% | 42.9% | +4.5 | ±7.1 |
| Roma | 190 | 51.1% | 47.0% | +4.1 | ±7.1 |
| AC Milan | 190 | 55.8% | 52.4% | +3.4 | ±7.1 |
| Hellas Verona | 190 | 22.6% | 27.1% | −4.5 | ±6.0 |
| Salernitana | 114 | 15.8% | 21.2% | −5.4 | ±6.7 |
| Cremonese | 76 | 17.1% | 22.8% | −5.7 | ±8.5 |
| Venezia | 76 | 14.5% | 22.2% | −7.7 | ±7.9 |
| Sampdoria | 76 | 17.1% | 25.7% | −8.6 | ±8.5 |
The one side of the ledger that looks firmer is the losing side. Six clubs had an ROI range entirely below zero. That tells me the market was more consistently too generous to strugglers than it was too stingy with the big clubs.
Section CLazio and Hellas Verona show how much Serie A seasons swing
The heatmap covers clubs present in all five seasons (12 qualified) and splits ROI by season. Lazio, the best club overall, went −9.7% in 2021/22, +39.0% in 2022/23, +11.1% in 2023/24, +5.5% in 2024/25 and −0.6% in 2025/26. They were profitable in 3 of 5 seasons, and much of the five-year total rests on one exceptional campaign.
Hellas Verona show the opposite pattern: −53.9% in 2022/23 and −57.2% in 2025/26, with a lone profitable season at +14.2% in 2024/25. Elsewhere, Udinese lost through several seasons before a large profitable one, and Napoli had one heavy losing season between strong ones.
View the data: roi by season for ever-present clubs
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | −9.7% | 39.0% | 11.1% | 5.5% | −0.6% |
| AC Milan | 34.2% | 1.7% | 4.7% | −14.3% | 3.5% |
| Bologna | −6.9% | 17.0% | 11.3% | −5.3% | 7.7% |
| Inter | −2.2% | 1.9% | 22.8% | −7.6% | 6.4% |
| Napoli | 13.5% | 29.0% | −42.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% |
| Fiorentina | 18.4% | −17.2% | 6.0% | 23.3% | −25.3% |
| Roma | −9.5% | −12.5% | −14.6% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| Udinese | −23.2% | −23.7% | −23.2% | −12.8% | 48.9% |
| Atalanta | −25.8% | −4.9% | 3.3% | 7.6% | −23.4% |
| Juventus | −16.7% | 9.9% | −9.2% | −17.7% | −15.8% |
| Torino | −24.8% | 5.8% | −18.5% | −30.7% | −3.6% |
| Hellas Verona | −2.1% | −53.9% | −32.5% | 14.2% | −57.2% |
A season is only about 38 bets per club, so a few results at long odds can flip a colour on this grid. I read the heatmap as a warning against chasing last season's hot club rather than as a map of reliable value.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Price-shop every Serie A bet. The blanket return improves from −10.8% to −6.8% at the best price, and Lazio's figure rises from +9.0% to +13.1%. If you back a club, take the best number you can find.
- Be wary backing relegation strugglers. Sampdoria (−51.0%), Venezia (−43.8%) and Salernitana all won less often than their prices implied. Six clubs had ranges entirely below zero, so this is the firmest pattern in the data.
- Don't treat Lazio as automatic. Lazio were profitable in only 3 of 5 seasons, and no club's range sat entirely above zero. These club samples are small, so use the record as context for your own read, never as a reason on its own.
Frequently asked
Which Serie A club has been the most profitable to back to win?
Lazio, at +9.0% at the major-bookmaker price and +13.1% at the best price over 190 matches from 2021/22–2025/26. The 95% range of ±19.2 points means that edge could easily be chance.
Does backing every Serie A team to win make money?
No. Backing every club in every match returned −10.8% at the major-bookmaker price and −6.8% at the best available price, and only 8 of 25 clubs showed a profit at the major price.
Do Inter win more often than the odds suggest?
Over this window, Inter won 67.4% of matches against a margin-free implied 61.7%, a gap of +5.7 points. That gap has a 95% range of ±6.7 points, so it isn't conclusive.
I'm Harper Greaves, and I specialise in 1X2 Match Result betting, turning years of watching football and arguing about outcomes into research-backed picks worth your time.
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