Olivia Bennett

I came into football analytics from a quantitative background, with several years building probability models in a financial environment before deciding the football side was a more interesting problem. The two disciplines have more in common than people think — both are about reading uncertain information and making consistent decisions under pressure. My work at BettingTips2 sits behind the scenes. I look after the simulation models that estimate match outcomes — home, draw, away, scorelines, total goals, BTTS — and I work closely with Nathan to make sure the models stay calibrated as leagues and team profiles change. When you see a percentage attached to a tip on the site, my models are part of how that number was reached. I think probability is one of the most misunderstood ideas in betting. A 65% home win is not a guarantee, and a 30% draw isn't a long shot. My job is to make sure those numbers are honest, and that the team uses them to inform decisions rather than to sell certainty. — Olivia Bennett