Premier League Clubs Ranked by Over 2.5 Goals Rate
Five seasons of Premier League results show which clubs drag matches over 2.5 goals and which keep them tight, and where the market's prices have lagged behind.
Brandon HoldenCorrect Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals specialistReviewed by Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
I spend most of my week thinking about scorelines, and the first question I ask about any fixture is simple: are these two sides likely to produce three goals or not? Club identity matters more than people admit. Some teams pull every match into a shootout, while others grind almost everything into a low score.
Across 1,900 Premier League matches, 56.6% went over 2.5 goals. If you read our over/under tips, you'll know I treat that as the baseline rather than the answer. Tottenham sit top at 64.7% and Everton sit bottom at 44.2%, a gap of +20.5 points. The more useful part is that the prices didn't always keep up with either club.
Section ATottenham, Liverpool and Manchester City lead the over 2.5 table
The top of the table is where I start. Tottenham went over 2.5 in 64.7% of 190 matches, averaging 3.22 goals per game, which works out at fair odds of 1.54. Liverpool and Manchester City are tied just behind on 62.6%, both at fair odds of 1.60.
Leeds and Leicester also sit on 62.3%, but over 114 matches each, so their 95% range runs from 53.4–71.2%. That width is the reason I don't rank them alongside the big three with the same confidence, even though the headline figure is almost identical.
| Club | Matches | Over 2.5 | 95% range | Avg goals | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 190 | 64.7% | 57.9–71.5% | 3.22 | 1.54 |
| Liverpool | 190 | 62.6% | 55.7–69.5% | 3.22 | 1.60 |
| Manchester City | 190 | 62.6% | 55.7–69.5% | 3.21 | 1.60 |
| Leeds | 114 | 62.3% | 53.4–71.2% | 3.09 | 1.61 |
| Leicester | 114 | 62.3% | 53.4–71.2% | 3.10 | 1.61 |
| Fulham | 152 | 59.2% | 51.4–67.0% | 2.83 | 1.69 |
| Aston Villa | 190 | 58.4% | 51.4–65.4% | 2.92 | 1.71 |
| Newcastle | 190 | 57.9% | 50.9–64.9% | 3.04 | 1.73 |
| Arsenal | 190 | 57.4% | 50.4–64.4% | 2.95 | 1.74 |
| Chelsea | 190 | 57.4% | 50.4–64.4% | 2.90 | 1.74 |
| Bournemouth | 152 | 57.2% | 49.3–65.1% | 2.93 | 1.75 |
From Fulham at 59.2% down to Bournemouth at 57.2%, the rest of this half of the table bunches close to the league average. For those clubs I lean on the matchup and team news far more than on club identity.
Section BEverton, Crystal Palace and Burnley prop up the over 2.5 rankings
The bottom half is where unders live. Everton went over 2.5 in just 44.2% of 190 matches, with an average of 2.49 goals and fair odds of 2.26. That is the only club in the ranking whose matches stay under more often than they go over by any clear margin.
Crystal Palace at 48.9% and Burnley at 49.1% are next, both at fair odds of 2.04. Burnley's figure comes from only 114 matches, and its 95% range of 39.9–58.3% is wide enough that I wouldn't lean on it heavily. Wolves at 50.0% and Nottingham Forest at 50.7% round out a clear lower group.
| Club | Matches | Over 2.5 | 95% range | Avg goals | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 114 | 57.0% | 47.9–66.1% | 2.90 | 1.75 |
| Brentford | 190 | 56.3% | 49.2–63.4% | 2.94 | 1.78 |
| Brighton | 190 | 56.3% | 49.2–63.4% | 2.90 | 1.78 |
| West Ham | 190 | 55.3% | 48.2–62.4% | 2.95 | 1.81 |
| Manchester United | 190 | 55.3% | 48.2–62.4% | 2.88 | 1.81 |
| Nottingham Forest | 152 | 50.7% | 42.8–58.6% | 2.80 | 1.97 |
| Wolves | 190 | 50.0% | 42.9–57.1% | 2.65 | 2.00 |
| Burnley | 114 | 49.1% | 39.9–58.3% | 2.80 | 2.04 |
| Crystal Palace | 190 | 48.9% | 41.8–56.0% | 2.60 | 2.04 |
| Everton | 190 | 44.2% | 37.1–51.3% | 2.49 | 2.26 |
Above that group, Brentford and Brighton on 56.3% and West Ham and Manchester United on 55.3% are effectively league-average teams for this market.
Section CBookmaker prices against results for Tottenham, Everton and the extremes
This chart compares what a major bookmaker priced, with the margin stripped out, against what actually happened. League-wide the market was close: 55.7% priced against 56.6% landed. The clubs at the edges tell a different story. Tottenham's over 2.5 was priced at 58.6% and landed 64.7%, while Everton's was priced at 50.6% and landed only 44.2%.
Leeds and Leicester also outran their prices. Liverpool and Manchester City, by contrast, were priced almost exactly where they finished, so the market had them read. Of the ten clubs shown, three went over more often than priced, and the bottom five all landed slightly below their price.
View the data: over 2.5: priced vs actual, top and bottom five
| Priced (margin removed) | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham (190 matches) | 58.6% | 64.7% | ±6.8 |
| Liverpool (190 matches) | 63.0% | 62.6% | ±6.9 |
| Manchester City (190 matches) | 63.1% | 62.6% | ±6.9 |
| Leeds (114 matches) | 54.3% | 62.3% | ±8.9 |
| Leicester (114 matches) | 56.1% | 62.3% | ±8.9 |
| Nottingham Forest (152 matches) | 52.6% | 50.7% | ±7.9 |
| Wolves (190 matches) | 51.6% | 50.0% | ±7.1 |
| Burnley (114 matches) | 53.2% | 49.1% | ±9.2 |
| Crystal Palace (190 matches) | 50.7% | 48.9% | ±7.1 |
| Everton (190 matches) | 50.6% | 44.2% | ±7.1 |
My main caveat sits here. Five seasons is a small sample for any single club, and ranges of around seven points either way are typical, so a gap between price and result can be partly noise. Squads and managers also change, which makes these figures a starting point, not a forecast.
Section DPremier League over 2.5 by season with Tottenham and Everton tracked
The league line moves more than people expect. It ran at 53.9% in 2021/22, peaked at 64.7% in 2023/24 and settled back to 55.0% in 2025/26. A club's rate always needs reading against the season it came from.
Tottenham's range runs from 57.9% to 78.9%, and they sit above the league line in every season shown. Everton's range runs from 36.8% to 55.3%, and that high point came in the first season of the window; since then they have stayed below the league every year.
View the data: over 2.5 by season: league vs the extremes
| Premier League | Tottenham | Everton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 53.9% | 57.9% | 55.3% |
| 2022/23 | 52.6% | 60.5% | 42.1% |
| 2023/24 | 64.7% | 78.9% | 42.1% |
| 2024/25 | 56.6% | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 2025/26 | 55.0% | 63.2% | 44.7% |
That consistency matters more to me than the five-season average. A club that tracks above or below the league season after season is showing a habit, not one freak campaign.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Start Tottenham games high. Tottenham went over 2.5 in 64.7% of matches against a priced 58.6%, and beat the league line every season. I treat their fixtures as overs-leaning until team news gives me a reason not to.
- Respect Everton's unders. Everton landed over 2.5 just 44.2% of the time while being priced at 50.6%. For correct score, that pushes me towards the 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0 end of the grid.
- Don't oversell small samples. Leeds, Leicester and Burnley each have only 114 matches, with ranges as wide as 39.9–58.3% for Burnley. Club samples are small, so I use these rates as a lean, never a verdict.
Frequently asked
Which Premier League club has the highest over 2.5 goals rate?
Tottenham, with 64.7% of their 190 matches going over 2.5 goals and an average of 3.22 goals per game. Liverpool and Manchester City are next on 62.6%.
Which Premier League team has the most under 2.5 goals matches?
Everton, whose matches went over 2.5 only 44.2% of the time, averaging 2.49 goals. Crystal Palace at 48.9% and Burnley at 49.1% are the next lowest.
How often do Premier League matches go over 2.5 goals?
Across 1,900 matches, 56.6% went over 2.5 goals, against a no-vig priced probability of 55.7%. The season rate ranged from 53.9% in 2021/22 to a high of 64.7%.
I'm Brandon Holden, and I focus on Correct Score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals markets, where disciplined match analysis matters more than loud opinions.
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