Europe's Most Reliable Home Favourites: Win Rates by Club
Five seasons of home favourites across 11 European top flights: who wins most often, who beats the market's estimate, and who quietly costs you money.
Backing a big club at home feels like the safest line on any coupon. I wanted to know which European clubs actually deliver when they start as favourite on their own ground, and, more usefully, which of them win more often than their price says they should. The study covers 11 top flights from 2021/22–2025/26: 11,122 matches, with 80 clubs reaching the minimum of 60.
The short answer is that the market is close to fair overall. All home favourites won 55.1% against a priced rate of 53.9%, a gap of only +1.2 points. Sporting CP top the win-rate table at 85.5%, but the money story sits elsewhere: Borussia Dortmund returned +17.6% to flat stakes, while Bayern Munich won 77.6% of the time and still lost. Before any home favourite reaches my free 1X2 picks page, it has to clear exactly this kind of test.
Section ASporting CP, PSV and Celtic lead Europe's home favourite win rates
This chart ranks the top 16 clubs by how often they won at home when priced as favourite. Sporting CP lead with 85.5% from 83 matches, followed by PSV on 83.3%, Celtic on 82.8% and Porto on 81.9%. The next group is the household names: Barcelona at 79.8%, Dortmund at 79.2%, Real Madrid at 77.9%, Manchester City at 77.7% and Bayern Munich at 77.6%.
Look at where the top four play. Portugal, the Netherlands and Scotland are leagues where the gap between the leading clubs and the rest is wide, so these sides are often facing much weaker opposition at home.
View the data: highest win rate as home favourite
| Top flights, 2021/22–2025/26, min 60 matches | |
|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 85.5% |
| PSV | 83.3% |
| Celtic | 82.8% |
| Porto | 81.9% |
| Barcelona | 79.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 79.2% |
| Benfica | 78.3% |
| Real Madrid | 77.9% |
| Manchester City | 77.7% |
| Bayern Munich | 77.6% |
| Atlético Madrid | 77.3% |
| Galatasaray | 77.3% |
| Rangers | 74.7% |
| Arsenal | 74.4% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 73.9% |
| PSG | 73.0% |
That is why I never treat this table as a list of bets. A high win rate mostly tells you how short a club was priced; Celtic averaged odds of 1.27, so winning often is simply what the market expected. Cross-league comparisons of raw win rates need care for the same reason.
Section BBayern Munich is the only top-10 home favourite below its price
Here I put each club's priced win rate, with the bookmaker margin removed, next to what actually happened. Nine of the top 10 won more often than priced. Sporting CP were priced at 74.1% and won 85.5%; Dortmund were priced at only 64.5% and won 79.2%, the widest separation on the chart.
Bayern Munich are the exception. The market priced them at 79.2% and they won 77.6%. Benfica sit just above their line, priced at 75.8% and winning 78.3%.
View the data: top 10 home favourites: priced vs won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP (83 matches) | 74.1% | 85.5% | ±7.6 |
| PSV (84 matches) | 75.8% | 83.3% | ±8 |
| Celtic (93 matches) | 76.3% | 82.8% | ±7.7 |
| Porto (83 matches) | 73.5% | 81.9% | ±8.3 |
| Barcelona (94 matches) | 70.5% | 79.8% | ±8.1 |
| Borussia Dortmund (77 matches) | 64.5% | 79.2% | ±9.1 |
| Benfica (83 matches) | 75.8% | 78.3% | ±8.9 |
| Real Madrid (95 matches) | 69.7% | 77.9% | ±8.3 |
| Manchester City (94 matches) | 73.7% | 77.7% | ±8.4 |
| Bayern Munich (85 matches) | 79.2% | 77.6% | ±8.9 |
The main caveat belongs here. These samples run from 77 to 95 matches, so every club carries a range of roughly ±7.6 to ±9.1 points. Small gaps such as Benfica's or Manchester City's are well within normal variation, and I would not build a staking plan on them.
Section CHearts and Dortmund beat the price, Brighton fell furthest short
This chart strips out win rate entirely and shows only won minus priced. Hearts lead at +14.9 points, winning 69.3% against a priced 54.4% over 75 matches. Dortmund follow at +14.7, then Vitória Guimarães +14.5, Roma +14.0, Atlético Madrid +13.4 and Union Saint-Gilloise +13.0.
The other end is just as instructive. Brighton won only 40.3% at home as favourite against a priced 55.0%, a shortfall of −14.7 points over 67 matches. Mainz at −10.8, Chelsea at −9.2, Atalanta at −8.1, Ajax at −7.0 and AZ at −5.6 complete the list.
View the data: beat or missed the price as home favourite
| Won minus priced | |
|---|---|
| Hearts | +14.9 pts |
| Borussia Dortmund | +14.7 pts |
| Vitória Guimarães | +14.5 pts |
| Roma | +14 pts |
| Atlético Madrid | +13.4 pts |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | +13 pts |
| AZ | −5.6 pts |
| Ajax | −7 pts |
| Atalanta | −8.1 pts |
| Chelsea | −9.2 pts |
| Mainz | −10.8 pts |
| Brighton | −14.7 pts |
| All home favourites | +1.2 pts |
Notice that most of the positive names were priced as modest favourites, not overwhelming ones. My reading is that the market is sharpest on the giants and leaves more room among clubs priced closer to even money, though that is an interpretation of the pattern, not a rule.
Section DDortmund and Barcelona returned most among the top 10 favourites
The table converts all of this into flat 1-unit stakes. Dortmund returned +17.6% at average odds of 1.52, rising to +20.5% at the best available price. Barcelona made +9.7% at 1.40, Sporting CP +8.6% at 1.32 and Real Madrid +6.9% at 1.41.
Bayern Munich lost −6.8% at average odds of 1.22, and Benfica lost −3.4% at 1.28. Very short prices leave almost no room for the occasional slip.
| Club | League | Matches | Avg odds | Return | Best-price return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 83 | 1.32 | +8.6% | +11.4% |
| PSV | Eredivisie | 84 | 1.29 | +4.3% | +6.6% |
| Celtic | Scottish Premiership | 93 | 1.27 | +3.7% | +6.4% |
| Porto | Primeira Liga | 83 | 1.33 | +3.9% | +6.5% |
| Barcelona | La Liga | 94 | 1.40 | +9.7% | +12.6% |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 77 | 1.52 | +17.6% | +20.5% |
| Benfica | Primeira Liga | 83 | 1.28 | −3.4% | −1.1% |
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 95 | 1.41 | +6.9% | +9.7% |
| Manchester City | Premier League | 94 | 1.34 | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 85 | 1.22 | −6.8% | −4.3% |
Price shopping matters more than people admit. Manchester City's +1.4% becomes +3.7% at the best price, yet Bayern stay negative at −4.3% even with the best odds available. If the price itself is wrong, no amount of shopping rescues it.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Judge the price, not reputation. Bayern Munich won 77.6% at home as favourite and still returned −6.8%. A famous name at 1.22 is not value simply because it usually wins.
- Favour mid-priced home sides. Dortmund at average odds of 1.52 and Hearts with a +14.9-point gap show the market left more room on modest favourites than on the shortest prices. Club samples are small, so treat this as a lead to investigate, not a system.
- Question Brighton and Chelsea favourites. Brighton won 40.3% against a priced 55.0%, and Chelsea fell −9.2 points short. When they are home favourites, I want a clear reason before backing them to win.
Frequently asked
Which European club wins most often as home favourite?
Sporting CP had the best record, winning 85.5% of 83 home matches as favourite. PSV were next on 83.3% and Celtic on 82.8%.
Is backing home favourites profitable?
Overall it is close to break-even territory: all home favourites won 55.1% against a priced rate of 53.9%, a gap of just +1.2 points. Individual clubs varied widely, from Dortmund at +17.6% to Bayern Munich at −6.8%.
Which club most underperformed its home favourite price?
Brighton had the biggest shortfall at −14.7 points, winning 40.3% of 67 home matches as favourite against a priced 55.0%.
I'm Daniel Crawford, Head of VIP Predictions at BettingTips2. I lead the team responsible for our highest-confidence selections and member-only analysis.
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