Manchester, Merseyside and North London Derbies by the Numbers
Results, goals, draws and cards from 153 Premier League meetings in the Manchester, Merseyside and North London derbies, read against the league as a whole.
Derbies are where bettors most often swap evidence for emotion. So I wanted to see what 26 seasons of Premier League meetings actually say about the Manchester, Merseyside and North London fixtures, measured against 9,790 league matches overall.
The short answer is that these three derbies behave quite differently. Manchester is almost dead level and rarely drawn. Merseyside and North London are draw-heavy and card-heavy, and North London is a genuine goal fixture. My football 1X2 tips page covers day-to-day match odds. This study is the long view behind them.
Section ALiverpool dominate Everton while the Manchester derby stays level
The head-to-head table is the blunt starting point. Manchester City lead Manchester United 21–9–20, about as even as a rivalry gets over 50 meetings, with goals 78–61. On Merseyside the story is lopsided: Liverpool are 28–19–5 against Everton, scoring 84 to 41.
Arsenal hold a clear edge over Tottenham at 24–17–10, and the goals column of 100–69 shows how open that fixture has been. These are long records, though, and club strength has swung enormously across the period.
| Derby | Matches | First club won | Draws | Second club won | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester derby | 50 | 21 | 9 | 20 | 78–61 |
| Merseyside derby | 52 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 84–41 |
| North London derby | 51 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 100–69 |
First club: Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal. Goals shown first club–second club.
I treat these records as context, never as a reason to back anyone. A team's all-time derby record tells you nothing about this season's squad on its own.
Section BHome advantage is huge in the North London derby
Split by venue, the North London derby stands out. The home side won 51.0% of meetings and the away side only 15.7%, compared with a league-wide 45.7% home and 29.6% away. Travelling across North London has been a poor bet.
Manchester barely cares about venue: 42.0% home wins and 40.0% away wins, with draws at just 18.0%. Merseyside sits in between, with 36.5% drawn, well above the league's 24.7%.
View the data: home win, draw, away win in each derby
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester derby | 42.0% | 18.0% | 40.0% |
| Merseyside derby | 38.5% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| North London derby | 51.0% | 33.3% | 15.7% |
| All Premier League | 45.7% | 24.7% | 29.6% |
Section CBookmakers underpriced draws in Merseyside and North London derbies
This is the chart I find most interesting. Across the whole Premier League the market priced the draw at 25.1% and it landed 24.7% of the time, which is close to perfect. In the derbies the picture splits.
Merseyside draws were priced at 25.1% and came in 37.3% of the time. North London draws were priced at 26.3% and came in 33.3%. The Manchester derby went the other way: priced at 24.5%, drawn only 18.0%.
95% ranges on the derby rows.
View the data: priced vs actual draw rate
| Priced | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester derby (50 matches) | 24.5% | 18.0% | ±10.6 |
| Merseyside derby (51 matches) | 25.1% | 37.3% | ±13.3 |
| North London derby (51 matches) | 26.3% | 33.3% | ±12.9 |
| All Premier League (9,707 matches) | 25.1% | 24.7% | ±0 |
Here is the caveat I want every reader to hold onto. With around 50 matches per derby, the 95% ranges run from ±10.6 to ±13.3 points, so none of these gaps is proven. They are patterns worth watching, not edges you can bank.
Section DNorth London derby goals stay high across every era
The North London derby averaged 3.31 goals per match against a league figure of 2.72, with both teams scoring in 72.5% and over 2.5 goals in 62.7%. It ran at 3.33 in the first five-season block and 3.42 in the most recent one, so the habit has held up over time.
Merseyside is the tight fixture at 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 each at 44.2%. Manchester averaged 2.78, rising from 2.50 in the first block to 3.00 in the latest.
About 10 meetings per derby per block, so single blocks are noisy.
View the data: goals per match by five-season block
| Manchester derby | Merseyside derby | North London derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000/01–04/05 | 2.5 goals | 2.5 goals | 3.33 goals |
| 2005/06–09/10 | 2.6 goals | 2.2 goals | 3.2 goals |
| 2010/11–14/15 | 3.4 goals | 2.7 goals | 3.8 goals |
| 2015/16–19/20 | 2.3 goals | 2.1 goals | 2.8 goals |
| 2020/21–25/26 | 3 goals | 2.5 goals | 3.42 goals |
Each block holds only about 10 meetings, so I read the line for its general level rather than for any single rise or fall.
Section EMerseyside and North London derbies run hot on cards
All three derbies beat the Premier League average of 3.28 yellows per match. North London leads at 4.24, Merseyside follows at 4.12 and Manchester sits at 3.72.
Red cards tell a sharper story. A red appeared in 26.9% of Merseyside derbies and 21.6% of North London meetings, against 13.2% across the league. Manchester's 16.0% is only slightly above normal.
View the data: yellow cards per match
| Premier League, 2000/01–2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| Manchester derby | 3.72 cards |
| Merseyside derby | 4.12 cards |
| North London derby | 4.24 cards |
| Premier League average | 3.28 cards |
If you look at card markets in these fixtures, check whether the line already reflects the derby tag. Prices often do, and the edge disappears once it is built in.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Respect the Merseyside draw. Liverpool v Everton drew 37.3% of the time against a priced 25.1%. Before dismissing the draw, compare the price with that history, and remember that 51 matches is a small sample.
- Expect goals between Arsenal and Tottenham. The North London derby has averaged 3.31 goals with both teams scoring in 72.5%, and the level has held across eras. Lean on that context over any single season's narrative.
- Don't force Manchester draws. City v United drew only 18.0% of the time against a 24.5% price, and venue barely mattered. That pattern is no reason to back anything on its own, but it argues against reflexively backing the draw.
Frequently asked
How often does the Merseyside derby end in a draw?
In Premier League meetings from 2000/01 to 2025/26, 36.5% of Merseyside derbies were drawn. Against the closing market, draws came in 37.3% of the time when they were priced at 25.1%.
Is the North London derby a high-scoring fixture?
Yes. It averaged 3.31 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 72.5% and over 2.5 goals in 62.7%, all well above the league average of 2.72 goals.
Which Premier League derby has the most yellow cards?
The North London derby averaged 4.24 yellow cards per match, ahead of Merseyside at 4.12 and Manchester at 3.72. The Premier League average is 3.28.
I'm Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief at BettingTips2. I oversee every prediction and article published on the platform, working closely with our analysts to keep the standard consistent.
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