Opening Day Records by Club: Who Starts Seasons Well?
Some clubs start seasons like a train and others trip on the first step. I checked which records hold up against the odds, and which only look good on paper.
Opening day is where my job is hardest. Squads are half-built, the transfer window is still open, preseason knocks are hidden and nobody has seen a competitive lineup in months. So I wanted to know whether certain clubs reliably start well or badly across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, and whether the odds already know it.
The headline answer is that the market as a whole gets opening day right. Across 2,316 opening-day club results, clubs averaged 1.37 points per game against 1.37 expected from the odds, and draws ran at 25.3% against 25.8% in the rest of the season. The edges, where they exist, sit with individual clubs, and those are the ones I flag before anything reaches my free 1X2 picks page.
Section AJuventus and Bayern Munich lead, Nice and Stuttgart trail on opening day
Each line joins a club's rest-of-season points per game to its opening-day figure, for the 49 clubs with at least 20 top-flight openers. Juventus stand out: 19-2-2 in 23 openers, 2.57 points per game against 2.08 over the rest of their seasons. Bayern Munich went 18-4-2 for 2.42, while Barcelona and Real Madrid both sit on 2.33, only slightly above their 2.20 elsewhere.
At the other end, Nice went 4-5-12 for 0.81 points per game, well below their 1.43 for the rest of the season. Stuttgart managed 0.91 against 1.41, and Werder Bremen 1.04 against 1.39. Schalke show the same pattern, dropping to 1.15 on day one from 1.54.
Top 8 and bottom 8 clubs by opening-day points per game.
View the data: opening-day points per game: best and worst starters
| Rest of season | Opening day | |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus (23 openers, 19-2-2) | 2.08 | 2.57 |
| Bayern Munich (24 openers, 18-4-2) | 2.25 | 2.42 |
| Barcelona (24 openers, 17-5-2) | 2.2 | 2.33 |
| Real Madrid (24 openers, 17-5-2) | 2.2 | 2.33 |
| Borussia Dortmund (24 openers, 17-2-5) | 1.84 | 2.21 |
| Manchester United (24 openers, 17-2-5) | 1.96 | 2.21 |
| Chelsea (24 openers, 16-5-3) | 1.88 | 2.21 |
| Manchester City (23 openers, 16-2-5) | 1.91 | 2.17 |
| Nice (21 openers, 4-5-12) | 1.43 | 0.81 |
| Stuttgart (22 openers, 5-5-12) | 1.41 | 0.91 |
| Bologna (20 openers, 5-5-10) | 1.24 | 1 |
| Werder Bremen (23 openers, 6-6-11) | 1.39 | 1.04 |
| West Ham (23 openers, 8-1-14) | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Espanyol (22 openers, 6-7-9) | 1.18 | 1.14 |
| Schalke (20 openers, 6-5-9) | 1.54 | 1.15 |
| Toulouse (20 openers, 6-5-9) | 1.23 | 1.15 |
For a bettor, the gap matters more than the raw figure. The big clubs are mostly a bit better on opening day than usual, while the strugglers are a lot worse. My guess at the reason is late team news: thin squads feel missing signings and preseason injuries more sharply.
Section BEintracht Frankfurt pay on opening day while Stuttgart and Bremen burn money
A good record is not the same as a profitable one, so this chart shows a flat one-unit stake on each club to win every opener at a major bookmaker's price. Eintracht Frankfurt returned 38.2% over 21 openers and Borussia Mönchengladbach 32.8% over 22, with Aston Villa, Wolfsburg and Mainz also comfortably positive.
The strangest name up there is West Ham. They went 8-1-14 on opening day, yet backing them to win returned 25.3%, because the wins came at long prices. Down the other side, Stuttgart returned −56.1% on stakes and Werder Bremen −52.0%, with Nice not far behind.
Six best and six worst returns; number of openers in brackets.
View the data: backing the club to win on opening day
| Return on stakes | |
|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt (21) | +38.2% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach (22) | +32.8% |
| Aston Villa (21) | +29.5% |
| West Ham (23) | +25.3% |
| Wolfsburg (24) | +24.2% |
| Mainz (20) | +21.6% |
| PSG (23) | −34.0% |
| Schalke (20) | −35.3% |
| Villarreal (23) | −40.0% |
| Nice (21) | −45.9% |
| Werder Bremen (23) | −52.0% |
| Stuttgart (22) | −56.1% |
The honest caveat goes here: 20 to 24 openers is a small sample, and one win instead of a defeat moves points per game by 0.12–0.15. These returns describe the club badge across 26 seasons of changing squads and coaches, not the team taking the field next August.
Section CManchester City and Dortmund beat the price, PSG fall short
The table compares the biggest clubs' opening-day points with what the odds expected. Borussia Dortmund took 2.21 points per game against 1.90 expected, for an 18.7% win return. Manchester City managed 2.17 against 1.83 and returned 14.3%, and Juventus' 2.57 against 2.18 produced 15.3%.
Elsewhere the market was close to spot on. Barcelona's 2.33 against 2.27 expected still returned −4.5%, and Bayern Munich's 2.42 against 2.28 came out at −0.6%, because short prices leave very little room for profit even when a club barely slips.
| Club | Openers | W-D-L | PPG | Expected | Win ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 23 | 16-2-5 | 2.17 | 1.83 | 14.3% |
| Liverpool | 24 | 15-7-2 | 2.17 | 1.99 | −1.3% |
| Arsenal | 24 | 14-4-6 | 1.92 | 2.00 | −14.1% |
| Chelsea | 24 | 16-5-3 | 2.21 | 2.07 | 0.5% |
| Manchester United | 24 | 17-2-5 | 2.21 | 2.11 | 6.7% |
| Tottenham | 24 | 11-6-7 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 5.7% |
| Real Madrid | 24 | 17-5-2 | 2.33 | 2.19 | 6.2% |
| Barcelona | 24 | 17-5-2 | 2.33 | 2.27 | −4.5% |
| Atlético Madrid | 22 | 9-9-4 | 1.64 | 1.83 | −32.4% |
| Bayern Munich | 24 | 18-4-2 | 2.42 | 2.28 | −0.6% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 24 | 17-2-5 | 2.21 | 1.90 | 18.7% |
| Juventus | 23 | 19-2-2 | 2.57 | 2.18 | 15.3% |
| Inter | 24 | 14-6-4 | 2.00 | 2.05 | −15.4% |
| AC Milan | 24 | 13-4-7 | 1.79 | 1.92 | −5.6% |
| Napoli | 20 | 12-3-5 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 7.3% |
| PSG | 23 | 11-7-5 | 1.74 | 2.09 | −34.0% |
PSG are the clear underperformers: 1.74 points per game against 2.09 expected and a −34.0% return. Atlético Madrid are close behind at 1.64 against 1.83 and −32.4%. Both are clubs whose summer squads I would watch especially closely before the first whistle.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Respect Juventus and Dortmund starts. Juventus at 2.57 points per game and Dortmund at 2.21 have both beaten their expected opening-day points, with win returns of 15.3% and 18.7%. Treat that as a reason to check the team news first, not as an automatic bet.
- Doubt Stuttgart, Bremen and Nice. Stuttgart at −56.1% and Werder Bremen at −52.0% have been the costliest clubs to back on day one, with Nice also deep in the red. Remember the samples are small, but a weak start to the season has been a recurring pattern for all three.
- Skip short-priced giants. Barcelona's 2.33 points per game still returned −4.5% and Bayern's 2.42 returned −0.6%. When the price is short, a strong record is already built in, so late lineup news is the only thing that can shift the value.
Frequently asked
Which club has the best opening-day record in Europe's top five leagues?
Juventus, who went 19-2-2 in 23 openers for 2.57 points per game. Bayern Munich are next on 2.42.
Are there more draws on the opening day of the season?
No. Opening-day draws made up 25.3% of club results, against 25.8% in the rest of the season, so the difference is very small.
Has backing PSG to win on opening day been profitable?
No. PSG averaged 1.74 points per game on opening day against 2.09 expected, and backing them to win returned −34.0% on stakes.
I'm Theo Hartwell, the team's Injury and Late News Tracker. My job is simple: catch the news that moves a match before it kicks off, and get it to our analysts in time to matter.
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