Do Derbies Draw More? City Derbies vs Normal League Matches
The old saying that derbies are cagey and end level does not survive the data. Derby draws come in below normal, and the price does not account for it.
Every bettor has heard it: derbies are tight, tense and cagey, so the draw is where the value lies. I wanted to see whether that holds, so we checked 3,014 city derbies and 948 named rivalry matches across 22 European divisions since 2000/01, against 179,762 other league games. The question has two parts. Do these matches end level more often, and does the draw price already reflect it?
The answer to the first part is no, and the second part carries a warning. City derbies were drawn 24.5% of the time, slightly below the 25.3% for ordinary matches in the same divisions and seasons. Backing every derby draw returned −10.1% per unit. I want readers to know this before they reach my free 1X2 picks page, because this piece of derby folklore costs money.
Section ACity derbies and rivalries follow the ordinary league result pattern
The first chart sets the three groups side by side. City derbies finished as home wins 44.8% of the time, almost the same as the 44.5% in other matches, so familiarity between neighbours does not blunt home advantage. The difference shows up elsewhere. Away teams won 30.8% of city derbies against 28.8% in other matches, and the draw share fell to 24.5% against 26.6%.
Named rivalries such as Barcelona v Real Madrid or Benfica v Porto come closer to the folklore at 26.8% draws. That is barely different from the 26.6% for everything else, though. Their away-win share of 27.4% is the thinnest of the three groups.
View the data: results in derbies vs other league matches
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| City derbies (3,014) | 44.8% | 24.5% | 30.8% |
| Named rivalries (948) | 45.8% | 26.8% | 27.4% |
| Other matches (179,762) | 44.5% | 26.6% | 28.8% |
My reading is that a short trip across town is not much of an away day, and the visiting side plays like it. That cuts against the idea that derbies naturally settle into stalemates.
Section BGreek and Spanish derbies draw more, Turkish and Portuguese fewer
This chart compares each country's derby draw rate with ordinary matches in the same league-seasons, which is the fair test. Greece shows the biggest lift, at 29.8% against 25.7%. Spain sits at 27.1% against 25.3%. England, with 1,284 derbies, barely moves: 25.9% against 25.3%.
The other end of the chart is more striking. Turkey's 520 derbies, dominated by the Istanbul clubs, were drawn 21.7% against 25.6%. Portugal came in at 20.8% against 25.4%. The grouped Belgian, French, German and Dutch derbies were drawn just 15.1% against 24.7%.
Bars show 95% ranges; countries with fewer than 100 city derbies are grouped.
View the data: city-derby draw rate vs the same league-seasons
| League-season average | City derbies | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece (188 derbies) | 25.7% | 29.8% | ±6.5 |
| Spain (188 derbies) | 25.3% | 27.1% | ±6.4 |
| Scotland (302 derbies) | 24.1% | 24.8% | ±4.9 |
| England (1,284 derbies) | 25.3% | 25.9% | ±2.4 |
| Italy (179 derbies) | 26.7% | 25.7% | ±6.4 |
| Turkey (520 derbies) | 25.6% | 21.7% | ±3.5 |
| Portugal (168 derbies) | 25.4% | 20.8% | ±6.1 |
| Other (4 countries) (185 derbies) | 24.7% | 15.1% | ±5.2 |
This is where I urge caution. Most countries hold fewer than 200 derbies, so the ranges run several points wide (Greece's is ±6.5 points), and much of the English sample comes from lower-league London fixtures rather than the headline games. Turkey and the Other group are the only results I would call clearly below normal. The Greek lift could easily be noise.
Section CBookmakers rate city-derby draws slightly too high, rivalries spot on
Results only matter when set against the price. Across 2,982 city derbies with major-bookmaker odds, the margin-free draw chance was 25.1%, but only 24.4% ended level, a gap of −0.7 points. Named rivalries were priced at 26.7% and landed at exactly 26.7%.
The return column shows what that means for a flat-stake punter. Backing every city-derby draw returned −10.1% per unit. That is worse than the −7.8% in other matches and the −6.6% in named rivalries.
| Match type | Matches | Priced draw | Actual draw | Gap (pts) | Draw return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City derbies | 2,982 | 25.1% | 24.4% | −0.7 | −10.1% |
| Named rivalries | 936 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 0.0 | −6.6% |
| Other matches | 176,768 | 26.7% | 26.6% | −0.1 | −7.8% |
The market is not shading derby draws to protect itself. It prices them much like ordinary games, and ordinary games draw slightly more often. That small mismatch, added to the margin, is why the derby draw is one of the poorer flat bets in this study.
Section DCity-derby draw rate has sat below league averages since 2005/06
The last chart checks whether this pattern is fading or fixed. In the first block, 2000/01–04/05, derbies were drawn 27.0% across 411 matches, above the 25.7% league-season average. In every block since, the derby line has sat under the average. It finished at 24.3% across 931 matches in 2020/21–25/26, against 25.0%.
View the data: city-derby draw rate by five-season block
| City derbies | League-season average | |
|---|---|---|
| 2000/01–04/05 | 27.0% | 25.7% |
| 2005/06–09/10 | 23.0% | 25.5% |
| 2010/11–14/15 | 23.8% | 25.6% |
| 2015/16–19/20 | 24.8% | 25.0% |
| 2020/21–25/26 | 24.3% | 25.0% |
So the old belief may have had some basis early on, but it has not described derby results for most of the period. I would not read much into the recent gap narrowing, because the blocks are too small for that.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Drop the derby-draw reflex. City derbies were drawn 24.5% of the time, and backing every one returned −10.1%. The tight-derby story is in neither the results nor the price.
- Respect the visiting neighbour. Away sides won 30.8% of city derbies against 28.8% elsewhere. In a city derby, look harder at the visitors before reaching for the draw.
- Treat country splits carefully. Istanbul derbies involving Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş pull Turkey down to 21.7%, while Athens and Thessaloniki derbies lift Greece to 29.8%. These club samples are small, with ranges several points wide, so treat them as leanings, not rules.
Frequently asked
Do football derbies end in a draw more often than normal matches?
No. Across European leagues, city derbies were drawn 24.5% of the time, compared with 25.3% for non-derby matches in the same divisions and seasons.
Is the draw good value in big rivalries like Barcelona v Real Madrid?
Named rivalries were priced at a 26.7% draw chance and finished level exactly 26.7% of the time. Backing every draw returned −6.6%, so the price was fair but not generous.
Which countries have the most drawn city derbies?
Greece led at 29.8% and Spain followed at 27.1%, while Turkey's derbies were drawn only 21.7%. Every country sample is small, so the ranges are wide.
I'm Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief at BettingTips2. I oversee every prediction and article published on the platform, working closely with our analysts to keep the standard consistent.
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