Big Five Leagues Compared: Goals, BTTS, Home Wins and Draws
Five seasons, five leagues, one question: where do goals, draws and home wins really cluster? The answers matter more than the reputations.
Every bettor carries a picture of each Big Five league in their head. The Bundesliga is open, Serie A is cagey, La Liga belongs to the home side. I wanted to see how much of that holds up against the record, so we looked at 8,907 league matches from 2021/22 to 2025/26. If you use my 1X2 bet tips page, this is the background I'd want you to have before you pick a market.
The short answer is that the reputations mostly hold, but the gaps are narrower than the talk suggests. Across all five leagues the average was 2.81 goals per match, and both teams scored in 54.5%. The Bundesliga sits clearly above that on goals, Serie A leads on draws at 27.2%, and La Liga's home win rate of 45.7% is the highest of the five.
Section ABundesliga tops the goal charts while La Liga sits bottom
This chart ranks the five leagues by average total goals per match. The Bundesliga leads at 3.18, the Premier League follows at 2.93 and Ligue 1 is at 2.82. Then there is a clear step down to Serie A at 2.61 and La Liga at 2.59.
For a bettor, that step matters more than the order. The top three and the bottom two behave like different sports when you price a totals market. I would never carry an assumption from a German match into a Spanish one.
View the data: goals per match by league
| Average total goals, 2021/22–2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 3.18 goals |
| Premier League | 2.93 goals |
| Ligue 1 | 2.82 goals |
| Serie A | 2.61 goals |
| La Liga | 2.59 goals |
The Bundesliga's reputation is earned, but the Premier League sits closer to it than to the Mediterranean leagues. Serie A and La Liga are almost level, and I treat them as one tier for goals.
Section BBundesliga BTTS holds steady while Serie A drifts lower
The heatmap shows the share of matches in which both teams scored, season by season. Over the five seasons BTTS was highest in the Bundesliga at 60.1% and lowest in Serie A at 51.4%. The colour of each row tells you more than the average does.
The Bundesliga row barely changes shade, and its best season was 61.8% in 2023/24. Serie A goes the other way. It ends with the lowest single-season figure in the whole grid, 45.3% in 2025/26.
View the data: both teams to score by league and season
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 50.0% | 51.6% | 61.6% | 57.4% | 56.1% |
| La Liga | 48.7% | 50.3% | 49.5% | 54.2% | 56.6% |
| Serie A | 57.4% | 50.3% | 52.4% | 51.6% | 45.3% |
| Bundesliga | 60.8% | 59.2% | 61.8% | 57.2% | 61.8% |
| Ligue 1 | 55.3% | 58.2% | 53.9% | 56.7% | 50.7% |
Consistency is the point here. A league that repeats itself every season gives you a base rate you can lean on. A league that moves around, as the Premier League did after 2022/23, demands that you check the current season before trusting the long-run figure.
Section COver 2.5, goalless draws and favourites across the Big Five
This table puts the goal lines next to how often the favourite won. Over 2.5 goals landed in 61.0% of Bundesliga matches and 56.6% in the Premier League, against 47.4% in La Liga and 48.9% in Serie A. Goalless draws follow the same split: 7.2% in both La Liga and Serie A, and 5.1% in the Bundesliga.
The last column is the one I'd study. The favourite, meaning the side with the shorter price, won 55.2% of Premier League matches and 52.6% in Ligue 1. Those figures sit close together, which tells me no league is a safe haven for short prices.
| League | Matches | Over 2.5 | 0-0 | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1,900 | 56.6% | 5.2% | 55.2% |
| La Liga | 1,900 | 47.4% | 7.2% | 54.4% |
| Serie A | 1,900 | 48.9% | 7.2% | 53.1% |
| Bundesliga | 1,530 | 61.0% | 5.1% | 53.0% |
| Ligue 1 | 1,677 | 53.5% | 6.9% | 52.6% |
La Liga and Serie A are the only two where over 2.5 landed in fewer than half of matches. Remember that before reaching for overs out of habit.
Section DLa Liga favours hosts while Serie A draws most often
The stacked bars split each league into home wins, draws and away wins. La Liga gives the home side the most, at 45.7%, and away teams the least, at 28.1%. Serie A has the lowest home win rate at 40.4% and the highest draw rate at 27.2%, with away wins at 32.4%.
The Premier League is the least draw-prone league at 23.9%. That fits its goal numbers, because more goals generally mean fewer stalemates.
View the data: home win, draw and away win by league
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 44.2% | 23.9% | 31.9% |
| La Liga | 45.7% | 26.2% | 28.1% |
| Serie A | 40.4% | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| Bundesliga | 44.1% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| Ligue 1 | 43.5% | 24.6% | 32.0% |
Home advantage still exists everywhere, but Serie A shows how far it can shrink. When home wins and away wins sit that close, the draw becomes a far more serious part of the price.
Section EBacking every home win lost money in all five leagues
This chart shows the flat-stake return from backing every home team, or every draw, at major-bookmaker prices with the margin left in. Home backing lost money everywhere, from −3.6% in La Liga to −14.5% in Serie A.
Draws returned between −6.5% in La Liga and +2.1% in the Bundesliga, with Serie A also in positive territory.
View the data: backing every home win or every draw
| Home win | Draw | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | −6.4% | −3.3% |
| La Liga | −3.6% | −6.5% |
| Serie A | −14.5% | +1.3% |
| Bundesliga | −6.4% | +2.1% |
| Ligue 1 | −7.1% | −6.2% |
This is the caveat I want every reader to hold onto. These are five seasons of history, not a system, and league averages hide very different clubs underneath. What the chart does show is that the market already prices the obvious stories, and blind home backing in Serie A was the costliest habit of all.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Separate the goal tiers. Treat the Bundesliga, Premier League and Ligue 1 as the higher-scoring group and Serie A and La Liga as the lower one. Over 2.5 landed in 61.0% of Bundesliga games but only 47.4% in La Liga.
- Respect the Serie A draw. With draws at 27.2% and home wins at 40.4%, Serie A is where I'd price the stalemate most seriously. Blind home backing there returned −14.5%.
- Check the club, not league. These are league averages, and they hide big differences between clubs. Use them as a starting point, then study the two teams actually in front of you.
Frequently asked
Which Big Five league has the most goals?
The Bundesliga, at 3.18 goals per match from 2021/22 to 2025/26, with over 2.5 landing in 61.0% of matches. La Liga had the fewest at 2.59.
Which Big Five league has the most draws?
Serie A, with draws in 27.2% of matches. The Premier League had the lowest draw rate at 23.9%.
Is backing every home team profitable in La Liga?
No. La Liga had the highest home win rate at 45.7% and the smallest loss from backing every home team, but that was still −3.6% per unit staked.
I'm Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief at BettingTips2. I oversee every prediction and article published on the platform, working closely with our analysts to keep the standard consistent.
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