Bundesliga Over 2.5 Goals by Club: Every Team's Goal Profile
Five Bundesliga seasons, 1,530 matches and 19 clubs. Who drives the goals, who drags them down, and what the exact totals tell a Correct Score and goals bettor.
Brandon HoldenCorrect Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals specialistReviewed by Marcus Whitfield, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
The Bundesliga has a reputation as the goals league. I wanted to see whether that holds club by club, not just as a general impression. This study covers 1,530 matches across the last five complete seasons and profiles 19 clubs with 51+ matches: goals scored, goals conceded, and how often their games cleared 2.5 and 3.5.
The headline answer is that the reputation is earned. League matches went over 2.5 61.0% of the time and over 3.5 40.8%, with Bayern Munich top on 80.0% and St Pauli bottom on 42.6%. This is the reference I check before anything goes on my over/under tips page, because a club's long-run shape tells me where a price should start, not where it finishes.
Section ABayern Munich and Hoffenheim lead the Bundesliga over 2.5 table
Bayern Munich are in a category of their own. Their matches went over 2.5 in 80.0% of 170 games, which works out to fair odds of 1.25. They score 2.96 and concede 1.11 per game, so the overs come almost entirely from their own attack.
Hoffenheim are second on 67.6%, with 50.6% of their games going over 3.5, and they get there a different way. They score 1.66 and concede 1.78, so their games are open at both ends. I treat that as a separate kind of over from Bayern's, because it depends on their defence staying loose.
| Club | Matches | Scored/g | Conceded/g | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | Fair O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 170 | 2.96 | 1.11 | 80.0% | 61.2% | 1.25 |
| Hoffenheim | 170 | 1.66 | 1.78 | 67.6% | 50.6% | 1.48 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 170 | 2.22 | 1.32 | 67.1% | 46.5% | 1.49 |
| Stuttgart | 170 | 1.76 | 1.51 | 65.9% | 44.7% | 1.52 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 170 | 2.15 | 1.24 | 65.3% | 45.3% | 1.53 |
| RB Leipzig | 170 | 1.95 | 1.25 | 63.5% | 42.4% | 1.57 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 170 | 1.52 | 1.72 | 62.9% | 44.7% | 1.59 |
| Freiburg | 170 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 62.4% | 37.1% | 1.60 |
| Werder Bremen | 136 | 1.40 | 1.73 | 61.0% | 37.5% | 1.64 |
| Hertha Berlin | 68 | 1.16 | 2.06 | 60.3% | 38.2% | 1.66 |
Borussia Dortmund on 67.1% and Bayer Leverkusen on 65.3% are closer to the Bayern model, with attack doing most of the work. Borussia Mönchengladbach on 62.9% get there by conceding 1.72 per game. The fair odds column is simply one divided by the observed rate. It is a model price with no margin built in, not a quote you will find anywhere.
Section BSt Pauli and Union Berlin anchor the Bundesliga's low-scoring end
St Pauli are the clear outlier at the bottom. Their matches went over 2.5 in 42.6% of 68, with fair odds of 2.34, and over 3.5 in only 16.2%. They score just 0.84 per game while conceding 1.49, so their games are low-scoring mainly because they rarely add to the total themselves.
Union Berlin, on 52.4% over 2.5 and 28.8% over 3.5, are the steadier low-goal profile across the full 170 matches. FC Köln sit near the bottom on 50.7% over 2.5, yet 38.2% of their games went over 3.5. That gap is a hint of something odd in their spread, which the next chart shows.
| Club | Matches | Scored/g | Conceded/g | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | Fair O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 170 | 1.66 | 1.54 | 59.4% | 40.0% | 1.68 |
| Heidenheim | 102 | 1.25 | 1.87 | 58.8% | 38.2% | 1.70 |
| Wolfsburg | 170 | 1.42 | 1.65 | 58.2% | 41.2% | 1.72 |
| Augsburg | 170 | 1.24 | 1.71 | 57.1% | 35.9% | 1.75 |
| Mainz | 170 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 54.7% | 32.9% | 1.83 |
| Bochum | 136 | 1.12 | 1.96 | 54.4% | 36.0% | 1.84 |
| Union Berlin | 170 | 1.26 | 1.46 | 52.4% | 28.8% | 1.91 |
| FC Köln | 136 | 1.31 | 1.66 | 50.7% | 38.2% | 1.97 |
| St Pauli | 68 | 0.84 | 1.49 | 42.6% | 16.2% | 2.34 |
The table also shows that a leaky defence alone does not reliably produce goals. Hertha Berlin conceded the most of any club at 2.06 per game, but their over 2.5 rate of 60.3% sits just below the league figure. Bochum conceded 1.96 and still came in at 54.4%.
Section CExact goal totals split Bayern Munich from St Pauli and FC Köln
This is the chart I care about most as a Correct Score bettor, because it shows how each club's games actually finish rather than just which side of 2.5 they land on. Bayern Munich had a goalless match only 0.6% of the time, and 38.8% of their games reached 5+. Hoffenheim had 3.5% goalless, 17.1% with exactly three and 25.3% with 5+.
St Pauli look very different. 26.5% of their matches had exactly three goals and only 5.9% reached 5+, so when they do go over, it is usually only just. FC Köln are split the other way: 12.5% with exactly three but 18.4% with 5+. Their games tend either to stay under or to open up completely.
View the data: exact total goals: six highest vs six lowest
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 0.6% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 38.8% |
| Hoffenheim | 3.5% | 8.8% | 20.0% | 17.1% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.2% | 10.6% | 21.2% | 20.6% | 15.9% | 30.6% |
| Stuttgart | 3.5% | 10.0% | 20.6% | 21.2% | 22.9% | 21.8% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4.7% | 8.8% | 21.2% | 20.0% | 18.8% | 26.5% |
| RB Leipzig | 7.1% | 10.0% | 19.4% | 21.2% | 18.8% | 23.5% |
| Augsburg | 5.3% | 14.7% | 22.9% | 21.2% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| Mainz | 5.3% | 11.8% | 28.2% | 21.8% | 20.0% | 12.9% |
| Bochum | 3.7% | 14.0% | 27.9% | 18.4% | 15.4% | 20.6% |
| Union Berlin | 8.8% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 23.5% | 14.7% | 14.1% |
| FC Köln | 5.1% | 13.2% | 30.9% | 12.5% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| St Pauli | 8.8% | 16.2% | 32.4% | 26.5% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
The main caveat applies most strongly here. Each row comes from between 51 and 170 matches, so a handful of results can move a cell by a point or more. I read these rows as broad shapes, not precise probabilities.
Section DBayern Munich's over 2.5 rate swings far more than the Bundesliga's
Across the league, the over 2.5 rate moved within a tight band from season to season: 58.5%, 60.5%, 62.4%, 59.8%, 63.7%. That stability is why I trust the five-season figure as a baseline.
Bayern are far less steady. Their rate ran 82.4%, 64.7%, 82.4%, 76.5% and then 94.1% in 2025/26. In the 2022/23 dip their games were only slightly more likely to go over than the league average, so their five-season figure hides some real variation.
View the data: over 2.5 by season: bayern munich vs the league
| Bundesliga | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 58.5% | 82.4% |
| 2022/23 | 60.5% | 64.7% |
| 2023/24 | 62.4% | 82.4% |
| 2024/25 | 59.8% | 76.5% |
| 2025/26 | 63.7% | 94.1% |
These are league matches only, with cup and European games excluded. Any fatigue or rotation effects from those competitions show up here only indirectly.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Price Bayern from attack. Bayern Munich's 80.0% over 2.5 rests on scoring 2.96 per game, and 38.8% of their matches reached 5+. For goals-line pricing, their lineup matters more than the opponent's.
- Respect St Pauli's ceiling. St Pauli went over 3.5 in just 16.2% of matches, and 26.5% of their games finished with exactly three goals. For Correct Score, I look at three-goal finishes before anything bigger, bearing in mind this rests on only 68 matches.
- Separate the two kinds of over. Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach get their overs by conceding, while Dortmund and Leverkusen get theirs by scoring. Decide which kind you are backing before you take the price, because the scorelines you expect will be quite different.
Frequently asked
How often do Bundesliga matches go over 2.5 goals?
Across 1,530 matches from 2021/22 to 2025/26, Bundesliga games went over 2.5 goals 61.0% of the time and over 3.5 goals 40.8% of the time.
Which Bundesliga club has the highest over 2.5 rate?
Bayern Munich, with 80.0% of their 170 league matches going over 2.5. That gives a fair price of 1.25. Hoffenheim are second on 67.6%.
Which Bundesliga team has the fewest high-scoring games?
St Pauli, with 42.6% of their 68 matches going over 2.5 and only 16.2% going over 3.5. They score 0.84 goals per game, the lowest in the study.
I'm Brandon Holden, and I focus on Correct Score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals markets, where disciplined match analysis matters more than loud opinions.
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