Premier League Elo Ratings by Club: Ten-Season Trajectories

Elo is the most honest single summary of club strength I know. It is one number that rises when a team beats expectation and falls when it doesn't. I wanted to see how the 20 clubs of the 2025/26 Premier League have moved on that scale since 2016/17, using 7,780 club-match ratings from public records across the Premier League and Championship.

The headline is that the top has changed hands and the gap beneath it has closed. Arsenal finished 2025/26 as the highest-rated club at 2,010, Manchester City's 2,074 in 2022/23 remains the peak of the decade, and Aston Villa gained +395 points, more than any other club. These ratings sit underneath the probabilities I publish alongside today's 1X2 tips, so how they move matters to every price I build.

Section AManchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal trade places at the summit

Manchester City went from 1,852 in 2016/17 to 1,992 in 2025/26, peaking at 2,074 in 2022/23. Liverpool's line has a saw-tooth shape. It reached 2,044 in 2021/22, dropped back and recovered more than once, and ended at 1,905.

Arsenal tell a different story. They sat below both rivals for most of the period, touched a low of 1,805 in 2019/20, then climbed steadily to a peak of 2,010 in the final season.

What I take from this is that the shape of a rating matters as much as its level. A steady climb like Arsenal's is a more reliable signal than a single high season. Liverpool's swings show how quickly a strong rating can give ground.

Section BManchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham drift below the leading pack

On the same scale, the other traditional heavyweights sit noticeably lower. Chelsea started the decade as the highest-rated of all the clubs here at 1,903, peaked at 1,920 in 2020/21 and ended at 1,841. Manchester United reached 1,933 in 2020/21, fell to 1,760 in 2023/24 and recovered to 1,893.

Tottenham are the clearest decline. They peaked at 1,928 in 2017/18 and slid to 1,738, a fall of −124 points. Since about 100 points is a clear gap on this scale, Tottenham now sit a long way below Arsenal and City.

One caveat before reading too much into any single line. These ratings also move with cup and European results, and a rating is a strength estimate rather than a prediction of where a club finishes in the table.

Section CAston Villa and Nottingham Forest lead a decade of rising clubs

Ranking the change from 2016/17 to 2025/26 makes the pattern plain. Aston Villa gained +395 and Nottingham Forest +383, followed by Brentford at +308 and Leeds at +284. Brighton at +252, Fulham at +248, Wolves at +222, Bournemouth at +218 and Newcastle at +206 complete a large group of risers.

At the other end, only Chelsea at −62 and Tottenham at −124 went backwards, with Burnley barely moving at +19.

Context matters here. Villa started from 1,468 and Forest from 1,409, ratings earned in the Championship, so they had far more room to climb. Even so, both now sit within touching distance of clubs that were well ahead of them a decade earlier.

Section DBournemouth, Brighton and Fulham finish at their ten-season peaks

The full table shows how many clubs ended 2025/26 at their best rating of the period. Bournemouth at 1,865, Brighton at 1,832, Everton at 1,796, Leeds at 1,792 and Fulham at 1,788 all peaked in the final season, as did Arsenal at 2,010.

Others have eased back from recent highs. Newcastle peaked at 1,882 in 2024/25 and now sit at 1,820. Aston Villa went from 1,877 to 1,863, and Crystal Palace from 1,820 to 1,792.

The mid-table cluster is remarkably tight. Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace all finished on 1,792, and Fulham at 1,788 is just behind them. When ratings are this close, I treat the matches between these clubs as genuinely open.

About the authorOlivia Bennett

I'm Olivia Bennett, Statistical Modelling Lead at BettingTips2. I design the probability frameworks that turn raw football data into the percentages you see attached to our predictions.

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