Clubs That Out-Shoot Opponents but Don't Win: Shot Share v Points
Out-shooting opponents usually buys a top-half finish. Aberdeen, Vitesse and Rayo Vallecano show how often it doesn't, and what that shortfall costs in points.
Shot share is one of the first numbers I check when a side looks better than its league position. It's simple, it stabilises quickly and it tracks quality well. But some clubs keep winning the shot count without collecting the points, and I wanted to know how common that is and who does it most.
Across 820 club-seasons in nine European top flights, 352 had a shot share above 50%. 55 of those (15.6%) still finished in the bottom half. Dominating the shot count is a strong signal. It's just not a promise, and a handful of clubs miss their expected points season after season.
Section AAcross nine top flights, shot share sorts the table remarkably well
This chart groups every club-season by shot share and shows where each group finished. At the extremes the pattern is stark. Of the 59 club-seasons under 40%, 94.9% finished bottom half and none made the top three. Of the 98 at 60% or more, 85.7% finished top three and 0.0% finished bottom half.
That reliability is why shot dominance feeds into the priors behind my football 1X2 tips page. A side that consistently controls the shot count is usually a side that controls matches.
View the data: where club-seasons finished, by shot share
| Top 3 | Rest of top half | Bottom half | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40% (59) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| 40–45% (180) | 0.6% | 18.3% | 81.1% |
| 45–50% (228) | 1.8% | 31.1% | 67.1% |
| 50–55% (161) | 7.5% | 63.4% | 29.2% |
| 55–60% (94) | 36.2% | 54.3% | 9.6% |
| 60% or more (98) | 85.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
The interesting part is the middle. Between the 45–50% band and the 50–55% band, the bottom-half rate drops from 67.1% to 29.2%. That is the sharpest change on the chart. Even so, nearly three in ten sides that edged the shot count landed in the bottom half, and only 7.5% of that band reached the top three.
Section BAberdeen, Athletic Bilbao and Vitesse out-shot opponents but finished bottom half
These are the most dominant bottom-half finishers in the sample. Aberdeen in 2021/22 top the list with a 59.4% shot share. Despite that share they finished 9th of 12 with 1.08 points per game. Athletic Bilbao in 2025/26 (59.1%, 12th of 20) and Vitesse in 2022/23 (56.6%, 10th of 18) follow.
The list also includes clubs with big reputations. Manchester United in 2024/25 had a 55.9% share and finished 15 of 20 on 1.11 points per game. Galatasaray in 2021/22 finished 13 of 20 despite a 55.2% share, and Kasımpaşa appear twice. The main caveat sits here. Shot share ignores shot quality, so a team taking many long-range efforts can look dominant without creating good chances. These tables are also computed from results, so the Scottish split and points deductions are not reflected.
| Club | League | Season | Shot share | Position | Pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | Scot Prem | 2021/22 | 59.4% | 9 of 12 | 1.08 |
| Athletic Bilbao | LaLiga | 2025/26 | 59.1% | 12 of 20 | 1.18 |
| Vitesse | Eredivisie | 2022/23 | 56.6% | 10 of 18 | 1.18 |
| Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 2024/25 | 56.1% | 10 of 19 | 1.33 |
| Manchester United | PL | 2024/25 | 55.9% | 15 of 20 | 1.11 |
| Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 2021/22 | 55.9% | 11 of 20 | 1.39 |
| Rennes | Ligue 1 | 2023/24 | 55.5% | 10 of 18 | 1.35 |
| Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 2021/22 | 55.2% | 13 of 20 | 1.37 |
| Rayo Vallecano | LaLiga | 2021/22 | 55.0% | 12 of 20 | 1.11 |
| Valencia | LaLiga | 2022/23 | 55.0% | 14 of 20 | 1.11 |
| Celta Vigo | LaLiga | 2022/23 | 54.8% | 13 of 20 | 1.13 |
| Fulham | PL | 2024/25 | 54.7% | 11 of 20 | 1.42 |
None of this breaks the broader pattern. These sides are the outliers inside the 55–60% band, where only 9.6% finished bottom half. Even so, they are the cases where a bettor reading only shot totals would have been misled.
Section CVitesse, Rayo Vallecano and Southampton trail their shot numbers repeatedly
To move from single seasons to clubs, I fitted a straight line across all club-seasons. Each extra 10 points of shot share adds 0.51 expected points per game, and a 50% share is worth 1.38 points per game. This chart shows clubs with at least 3 top-flight seasons in the window that fell furthest below that line on average. It's a simple model, so treat it as a guide to direction rather than a precise estimate.
Vitesse are the clearest case at −0.41 points per game across 3 top-flight seasons. Rayo Vallecano (−0.34) and Southampton (−0.31) come next. The list runs down to Hellas Verona in 16th at −0.19. Rangers also make the list, which shows that a strong side can underperform its shot numbers too.
Expected line: +0.51 points per game per 10 points of shot share; a 50% share = 1.38 points per game.
View the data: points per game below what shot share predicts
| Pts/game v expected | |
|---|---|
| Vitesse (Eredivisie) | −0.41 |
| Rayo Vallecano (LaLiga) | −0.34 |
| Southampton (PL) | −0.31 |
| Vizela (Primeira) | −0.28 |
| Göztepe (Süper Lig) | −0.26 |
| Lecce (Serie A) | −0.26 |
| FC Köln (Bundesliga) | −0.25 |
| Groningen (Eredivisie) | −0.24 |
| Leeds (PL) | −0.23 |
| Bochum (Bundesliga) | −0.22 |
| Alavés (LaLiga) | −0.22 |
| Santa Clara (Primeira) | −0.22 |
| Rangers (Scot Prem) | −0.21 |
| Cagliari (Serie A) | −0.2 |
| Nantes (Ligue 1) | −0.19 |
| Hellas Verona (Serie A) | −0.19 |
A single bad season can be noise, but a shortfall repeated across several campaigns suggests something structural. Possible causes include poor finishing, low-quality chances or a defence that concedes good shots even when it concedes few. I would still be careful, because a handful of seasons is a small sample for any one club.
Club verdict
What this file means before you bet.
- Discount narrow shot dominance. A share just above 50% is not enough on its own. In the 50–55% band, 29.2% of club-seasons still finished bottom half.
- Mark down repeat underperformers. Vitesse (−0.41), Rayo Vallecano (−0.34) and Southampton (−0.31) have consistently fallen short of their shot numbers, so I would not price them on shots alone. Club samples here are small, so treat this as a lean, not a rule.
- Trust the extremes more. At 60% or more, 0.0% of club-seasons finished bottom half. Under 40%, none reached the top three. The signal is most reliable at the edges, not in the middle.
Frequently asked
How often do teams that out-shoot their opponents finish in the bottom half?
Across 820 club-seasons in nine top flights, 352 had a shot share above 50%. Of those, 55 (15.6%) still finished in the bottom half.
Which team had the highest shot share but still finished bottom half?
Aberdeen in 2021/22, with a 59.4% shot share. They finished 9th of 12 in the Scottish Premiership with 1.08 points per game.
How many points per game is a 50% shot share worth?
On my straight-line fit, a 50% shot share is worth 1.38 points per game. Each extra 10 points of shot share adds 0.51 expected points per game.
I'm Nathan Pierce, Senior Data Analyst at BettingTips2. I build the statistical models behind our predictions and stress-test the picks our writers send my way.
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